What did Ukraine peace talks in Berlin achieve – and what happens next? | Ukraine

What happened in the Ukraine talks in Berlin?

The talks focused on security guarantees the US and Europe could offer Ukraine as part of a future peace deal with the Kremlin. On Monday, European leaders, including Keir Starmer, published a joint statement with a list of the security guarantees on the table. They included:

• A European-led “multinational force” to support Ukraine’s army and defend its skies and seas.

• A “legally binding commitment” from the UK and other European nations to “take measures to restore peace and security in the case of a future armed attack”.

• European support for Ukraine’s accession to the European Union.

• “Sustained and significant support” from Europe to help Ukraine “build its armed forces”, which should remain at a peacetime level of 800,000 troops (Russia has demanded that Ukraine cut the size of its armed forces far lower).

• A US-led “ceasefire monitoring and verification mechanism” to “provide early warning of any future attack”.

• Investment in Ukrainian reconstruction, which may include Russian sovereign assets that have been frozen in Europe.

We have had peace talks before. Why are these important?

European leaders spoke unusually positively about these proposals for defending Ukraine from further aggression. Kyiv would want the US to send troops to Ukraine as a “tripwire” to prevent a Russian attack, but the next best thing would be European troops from Nato countries on the ground in Ukraine helping defend the country.

The joint statement signed by the leaders of the UK, France, Germany, Italy and seven other European nations said this would “provide robust security guarantees and economic recovery support measures for Ukraine in the context of an agreement on ending the war”. The German chancellor, Friedrich Merz, told reporters “we now have the chance for a real peace process”.

So is the war over?

No. This is a kind of shuttle diplomacy with Ukraine and its European allies on one side, and Russia on the other. After this, the US negotiators led by envoy Steve Witkoff and Donald Trump’s son-in-law, Jared Kushner, would take the proposal back to the Russians.

But it is not at all clear that the Kremlin would sign a peace deal at this point.

First, Russians may not accept troops from Nato countries in Ukraine (the Kremlin has said this is a red line in the past). US officials briefed on the negotiations claim Russia would be ready to sign a deal with these security guarantees in place for Ukraine, but the Trump administration has been overly optimistic about achieving a ceasefire before.

And secondly, the two sides still have not agreed on what to do with the Ukrainian territory that has been occupied by Russia. The US delegation led by Witkoff and Kushner was said to be “brainstorming” what to do with the occupied territories by turning them into “economic free zones”. But really they are trying to find a way to make Ukraine agree to cede its sovereign territory to an invading army, something that Kyiv has said it does not want to do.

US negotiators said they were 90% of the way to a deal. But some of the hardest questions remain unresolved.