Science Insight: Using science to help detect risk  - Explained

We explore the scientific background, research findings, and environmental impact of Science Insight: Using science to help detect risk – Explained


Just a few years ago, as a member of the U.S. Coast Guard, Douglas Flessner spent his time quickly mobilizing emergency staff and supplies for disasters like Hurricane Idalia, among other major storms.

“I was doing a lot of the behind-the-scenes logistics to make sure all units had enough people, assets and resources to respond best,” said Flessner, who served as assistant to the logistical chief.

Those intense experiences piqued Flessner’s interest in the science of why natural disasters occur, and how people and businesses can better protect themselves.

“I wanted to deepen my understanding of exposures and risk,” he added.

So after his service, Flessner pursued his Master of Professional Science at the Rosenstiel School of Marine, Atmospheric and Earth Science, in the Natural Hazards and Catastrophes track. It is one of 14 different paths in the MPS program, and through his coursework, Flessner has learned about the science behind a host of natural disasters, as well has how the latest forecast models and other software can be used to help companies and governments to estimate their risk. Flessner also applied the skills he learned by interning at Guy Carpenter, a reinsurance agency.

“I’ve now received a great scientific understanding of geohazards, like tropical cyclones, earthquakes, volcanoes, wildfires, as well as how climate change is impacting those events, and how they can become disasters, which is when these natural hazards affect people or property,” Flessner added. “This track also helped me get my foot in the door for the catastrophe advisory team at Guy Carpenter, where I am now working part-time.”

Flessner graduates in December, and has already received multiple offers and accepted a position at Guy Carpenter where he will be guiding clients on their risk by drawing on his newfound understanding of the latest models. He is one of many students who have benefited from the 18-month MPS program and are working in the field today.

Douglas Flessner, MPS.

 

And the demand in the insurance and reinsurance fields for programs like this one is only rising.

“2025 will be the sixth year in a row that global insured losses have exceeded $100 billion, which has increased the industry focus on what is driving the uptick in losses,” said Kieran Bhatia, senior vice president and Climate and Sustainability Lead for North America at Guy Carpenter. Kieran earned his doctorate in atmospheric sciences from the Rosenstiel School. “Evolving physical risk is part of it, but we also look at how population increases, the shifts in where wealth is concentrated, the rising cost of goods, and other factors to understand the recent loss behavior. Considering all these crucial details and blending this information with the latest climate science is critical for pricing risk in the insurance industry.”

Elliott Morrill, who graduated from the MPS program in 2016, is now a senior associate director of climate risk advisory at AON, and said the program was instrumental to his career.

“Within the MPS program, there were many opportunities to build my knowledge about how we can analyze these naturally occurring events, and to bring analytics and statistics into my scientific training, but it also helped me grow into communicating and connecting with people,” said Morrill.  “I think there are many opportunities for people with this training at insurance companies, as well as chances to move up too.”

Nascent beginnings

The Natural Hazards and Catastrophes track arose nine years ago, as meteorologists and ocean scientists across the Rosenstiel School observed the rapid population increases and development near natural hazards, such as oceans. They recognized the environmental risks that would likely occur when people decide to live close to these hazards, and designed the curriculum to serve government agencies, nonprofits, and insurance companies who want to understand these emerging risks.

“Anywhere you have natural hazards, you need people to estimate that impact on society,” said Tamay Ozgokmen, a professor of ocean sciences who serves as coordinator of the track. “We could see this risk increasing, and we wanted to create a program where we would train students about how to do an environmental risk analysis for various clients.”

Through the program, students learn about coastal interaction and how to quantify and test hurricane force winds and storm surge at the Alfred C. Glassell, Jr. SUSTAIN Laboratory. They also learn to create visualizations of this data through ArcGIS mapping, and to navigate statistical software that help them craft these analyses with the help of the latest catastrophe models. Graduate students also learn about coastal engineering practices, which can include a primer on building codes as well, said Brian Haus, a professor of ocean sciences and a coastal engineer, who teaches some of the MPS classes.

“We try to get students to understand what the hazards are, and how can we quantify the risk from those natural hazards,” Haus said. “This program helps students to understand what tools are available to help establish the risk, and then how that information is brought into all of these catastrophe models, as well as how that information could be impacted.”

Ample career prospects

Morrill agreed that if more students are trained in how to combine a science background with catastrophe modeling, it would offer a more nuanced pool of knowledge for his field.

“The industry is constantly looking for the latest and greatest knowledge on all risks,” he added.

Bhatia added: “These programs that give you more applied and practical views of the science, and help you to develop these skills for a purpose—whether it’s in private industry or other sectors—is extremely valuable because you are preparing yourself for the questions and criteria of future employers, who may want to know how you are using the science for solutions.”

Rosenstiel School Dean Benjamin Kirtman sees this program as one that can help fill needed gaps in industries that would benefit from having employees with an earth science perspective.

“All of these tracks in the MPS curriculum have been thoughtfully designed to be extremely relevant to today’s societal needs and expertise in earth sciences,” Kirtman said.

The hazards and catastrophes track is just one of 14 Master in Professional Science tracks offered at the Rosenstiel School, for students who want more hands-on experience in a specific area. Most are 12 to 18 months long and combine internship experience with classes.

Others include:

·      Applied Remote Sensing: this track educates students about remote sensing technologies that enable researchers to acquire high-resolution satellite imagery, which has become indispensable for applications like disaster response and environmental monitoring.

·      Aquaculture: these students learn innovative, hands-on approaches to growing fish for consumption and shaping the future of sustainable and economically viable aquaculture, as well as the latest technologies, and policies, from recognized leaders in the field.

·      Broadcast Meteorology: this track prepares students for on-camera and behind-the-scenes careers in broadcast meteorology and provides the training necessary to enter the wider field of science journalism.

·      Climate and Society: emphasizes the relationship among weather, climate, and societal impacts and responses, which includes risk management, legal frameworks, the development of more resilient urban systems, and the built environment. Graduates often work in government, insurance, finance, energy, and other weather-impacted industries.

·      Coastal Zone Management: Students in this track explore topics like from coastal fisheries management, tourism development, port management and environmental impact assessments, as well as associated legal and governance frameworks.

·      Environmental Geology: through this track, students learn to identify, control, or eliminate sources of pollutants or hazards affecting the environment or public health. They also expand their knowledge in theoretical geology ,with technical expertise in geochemistry, geophysics, and hydrogeology to address geologic hazards.

·      Exploration Science: immerses students in citizen science project design, exploration technology applications, and field-based skills training, while offering essential background information that acknowledges the cultural and ethical implications of exploration. Students can choose their research area, and will study in partnership with the University of Miami’s Abess Center for Ecosystem Science and Policy.

·      Fisheries Management and Conservation: allows students to develop the professional skills required to be a scientist supporting marine resource management with curriculum options including, fishery and protected resources management, fisheries assessments, and quantitative ecology.

·      Marine Invertebrate Biology and Evolution: this track aims to train the next generation of evolutionary biologists that are skilled in contemporary techniques, such as genomics, while also learning classical techniques such as taxonomy and physical collection maintenance.

·      Marine Mammal Science: one of the select programs in the nation that prepares students for employment in marine mammal management, population assessments, acoustics, and care. Students interact with medical, research, and training experts in our community, and intern at a marine mammal rehabilitation, managed care, or research facility.

·      Tropical Marine Ecosystem Management: prepares students to help confront the threats to nearshore tropical ecosystems with training in the theoretical and practical aspects of tropical marine ecology. This includes: field methods and techniques, Geographical Information Systems (GIS) and remote sensing of shallow water marine environments, taxonomy and identification of common marine organisms, scientific diving, and small boat handling. 

·      Weather Forecasting: provides graduate-level training and experience in applied weather forecasting. This includes the application of analytical information to support specialized end-users, including industries like agriculture, utilities, insurance, transportation, construction, and others. Students will develop skills in different areas of service offered by the National Weather Service, including severe weather, marine and aviation forecasts, hydrology, and tropical cyclone forecasting

·      JD/MPS in Marine Ecosystems and Society: The University of Miami School of Law and the Rosenstiel School of Marine, Atmospheric, and Earth Science offer a joint degree program where students can focus on aquaculture, marine conservation, climate and society or coastal zone management.