Goldman Sachs has revised its expectations regarding Bank of England rate cuts, pushing the timeline back due to persistent inflation concerns from rising energy prices. The bank now anticipates three 25-basis-point rate cuts in July and November 2023, with a further reduction expected in February 2027.
This decision is in response to the inflationary pressures generated by increasing energy prices across Europe. The Monetary Policy Committee is anticipated to remain cautious in the short term, as highlighted by Goldman Sachs. In alignment, Standard Chartered and Morgan Stanley have delayed their forecasts, projecting the first rate cut in the second quarter of the year.
Goldman Sachs predicts that the bank rate will eventually stabilize at 3% by early 2027, yet warns of the potential for fewer cuts if economic conditions deteriorate further. The influence of global energy price spikes, particularly those connected to Middle Eastern conflicts, exacerbates inflation risks and contributes to this cautious outlook.
(With inputs from agencies.)