Explained : Tamil Nadu: Can BJP’s ‘Sanatan Dharma and Hindutva’ politics breach the elusive Dravidian state in 2026? and Its Impact

Union Home Minister Amit Shah on Monday inaugurated the “Namma Ooru Modi Pongal” celebrations in Tiruchirappalli, marking the start of the harvest festival season in poll-bound Tamil Nadu, and seeking to link Prime Minister Narendra Modi with Tamil cultural traditions. Shah’s two-day visit also included political meetings with senior BJP leaders to review organisational preparedness and sharpen strategies against the ruling DMK, which the BJP frequently labels as “anti-Sanatan Dharma.”

The political temperature further increased a day later when the Madurai Bench of the Madras High Court delivered its verdict in the closely watched Thiruparankundram ‘Deepathoon’ dispute, which is emerging as a key part of the BJP’s political offensive ahead of the upcoming Assembly elections in the elusive Dravidian state. The Madras High Court on Tuesday upheld a single-judge’s decision to allow the lighting of a Karthigai Deepam at a stone pillar on a peak atop the hill which has both the Arulmigu Subramania Swamy and the Sikkandar Badusha Dargah.

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The hill is a shared religious site, housing both a Murugan temple and a centuries-old dargah, and has historically witnessed tensions and conflicts.

The BJP welcomed the verdict widely seen as a setback for the M K Stalin-led government, which had been opposing the earlier verdict, claiming that it could risk communal tension, particularly with Assembly elections approaching.

Notably, the DMK-led Opposition MPs had also submitted a notice to the 2025 Winter Session in the Lok Sabha seeking to move a motion for the removal of Justice G R Swaminathan, who had earlier passed the direction.The BJP leaders seized of the issue, describing the DMK-led regime as “anti-Sanatan Dharma”, and criticising what they termed “appeasement politics”. The BJP’s ideological mentor, the RSS, also weighed in, deepening the political polarisation around the issue.

Demographically, Hindus are a substantial majority in Tamil Nadu.

As per the 2011 Census, Hindus constituted around 87.58% of the state’s population. However, this numerical strength has not translated into electoral success for the saffron party as Tamil Nadu’s Hindus have traditionally supported the DMK and the AIADMK, shaped by decades of Dravidian politics that prioritise regional identity, social justice, welfare schemes, and state autonomy over any pan-Indian Hindutva narrative.

Evolving from the ideology of figures like Periyar and C N Annadurai, Dravidian parties have built on Tamil language, culture, and social equality, resonating deeply with voters, including Tamil Hindus who tend to view their faith through a Tamil window, not like the north Indian version of Hindutva.

Electoral trends underscore this reality.

In the 2021 Assembly elections, the DMK-led alliance won decisively, while the BJP remained marginal. A similar pattern emerged in the 2024 Lok Sabha polls, where the DMK front swept all seats with Hindu voters mostly splitting between the two Dravidian majors.

For 2026 Assembly polls, the BJP and AIADMK are said to be keenly pursuing actor Vijay’s TVK to challenge the DMK. Vijay, as on date, appears to have rejected overtures from both — the BJP/AIADMK and the DMK — choosing to contest independently.

A three-cornered contest — DMK-Congress bloc, BJP-AIADMK-led NDA, and TVK — can fragment anti-DMK votes, say analysts, as such a scenario may allow the DMK to secure victory with a 37–40% vote share, as often seen in multi-cornered contests. In the 2024 Lok Sabha elections, the AIADMK and BJP contested separately, polling around 20.5% and 18.2% vote share, respectively. Had these votes combined, the NDA bloc could have crossed 40%, therefore the split facilitated the DMK-led INDIA bloc’s clean sweep on all 39 seats. With the BJP and the AIADMK on one side in 2026, it seems like anyone’s game.