Explained : India-Bangladesh Tensions Reach a Fever Pitch – Foreign Policy and Its Impact

Welcome to Foreign Policy’s South Asia Brief.

The highlights this week: A cricket spat underscores heightened India-Bangladesh tensions, South Asian governments respond to the U.S. military operation in Venezuela with caution, and former Nepali Prime Minister K.P. Sharma Oli signals cooperation with an investigation into a deadly crackdown on protests last year.

Can India and Bangladesh Reset Ties?

On Monday, Bangladesh’s interim government banned broadcasts of the Indian Premier League, one of the world’s most prestigious cricket leagues. The move came after the league’s Kolkata Knight Riders released Bangladeshi star Mustafizur Rahman, who had joined the team last month.

No reason has been given for the move, which was reportedly ordered by India’s main cricket body. Bangladesh’s national cricket team has now announced that it won’t play matches in India during the upcoming T20 World Cup.

In a cricket-crazed region where the sport has long been a unifying force (with a few notable exceptions), all of this underscores the depth of India-Bangladesh tensions. Ties became fraught after former Bangladesh Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina was ousted in 2024 by mass protests. But the relationship has reached an especially perilous point just weeks before a critical election in Bangladesh on Feb. 12.

The tensions are rooted in part in a core perception that each country harbors toward the other. Bangladeshis believe India has long meddled in the country’s domestic politics and foreign policy, while Indians think that Hasina’s ouster opened up space for Islamist hard-liners and other actors hostile to Indian interests.

Recent developments have hardened these views. India has hosted Hasina, permitted her to speak out publicly, and refused to turn her over to Bangladesh—reinforcing Dhaka’s position. In November, a Bangladeshi court sentenced her to death in absentia for crimes against humanity stemming from the 2024 crackdown on protesters by security forces that killed hundreds of people.

Last month, an angry mob lynched a Hindu garment factory worker in Bangladesh, where threats to the Hindu minority have drawn concern in India. Prominent Bangladeshi activists have also recently stepped up criticism of New Delhi. One of them, Osman Hadi, was shot last month and died days later; Bangladeshi police allege that two suspects in the killing fled to India, without providing information about their motivations.

Bangladesh’s election nonetheless provides a possible off-ramp. India has expressed readiness to engage with any elected government. The most likely winner, the Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP), has historically had fraught ties with India. But after ending a long alliance with the Islamist party Jamaat-e-Islami, the BNP is now more palatable to New Delhi.

After BNP chair and former Bangladeshi Prime Minister Khaleda Zia died last month, Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi sent a warm condolence letter to her son, Tarique Rahman. Indian External Affairs Minister S. Jaishankar attended her funeral in Dhaka. India appears to be signaling a new approach to a potential BNP-led government.

For his part, Rahman—who may be Bangladesh’s next prime minister—has called for unity, which may be an indirect way of assuring India that his government would work to protect Bangladesh’s Hindu minority.

However, the question is if domestic political factors could limit each country’s willingness to extend an olive branch. Powerful Islamist actors in Bangladesh reject engagement with India, limiting the political space for any new government in Dhaka. There is less risk for Modi, who remains extremely popular at home.

Tellingly, BNP leaders, including Rahman, have used some tough language in recent comments. The party’s secretary-general has insisted that good relations with India can only play out on “equal terms.” Last October, Rahman said Bangladeshis “have decided that relations [with India] will remain cool. So, I have to stand with my country’s people.”

Bangladesh’s election offers an opportunity for an India-Bangladesh reset, but only if each government is willing to stomach the political risks.

What We’re Following

South Asia reacts to Venezuela crisis. Reactions from South Asian governments to the U.S. military operation in Venezuela over the weekend have so far been cautious and measured, with few condemnations of the United States. Bangladesh, India, Pakistan, and Sri Lanka all issued statements expressing concern and calling for dialogue to resolve the crisis.

The region’s other governments have not issued formal statements. Perhaps the strongest official reaction from the region came from Pakistan’s acting permanent representative to the United Nations, Usman Jadoon, who said during a U.N. Security Council meeting on Monday that unilateral military actions “set dangerous precedents.”

This subdued reaction does not amount to a tacit endorsement of U.S. action but is rather a likely reflection of pragmatism. South Asian countries, especially those with fragile economies, do not want to trigger a volatile Trump administration that has already imposed high tariffs.

Precedent may also be a factor, especially for India, which in recent years has not condemned military interventions elsewhere—including the Russian invasion of Ukraine—even as it has privately opposed them.

Op-ed provokes spirited debate in Pakistan. The Express Tribune, one of Pakistan’s most prominent English-language newspapers, published an op-ed by a Pakistani Ph.D. student based in the United States last week that sparked spirited debate, especially after the newspaper removed it from its website.

Zorain Nizamani took aim at Pakistan’s political leadership and spoke of the large disconnect between the ruling elite and the country’s large young population. This critique isn’t new, but

the piece likely struck a nerve because of its frank prose—and because the opposition Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf party, which has a massive social media presence, gave it extensive attention.

The article began: “For the powerful old men and women who are in power, it is over. The younger generation is not buying what you are trying to sell.” That it resonated with so many young Pakistanis amplifies how aggrieved people are about the state of the country’s politics. These grievances are difficult to channel amid current repressive conditions.

Pakistan is not poised for mass anti-government protests, as the powerful military would likely preempt such activity. But the reality of large numbers of young people harboring bottled-up grievances highlights future risks for Pakistan’s social stability.

Sri Lanka targets tourism to aid cyclone recovery. On Monday, Sri Lankan Tourism Minister Vijitha Herath announced that the government aims to bring 3 million tourists to the country in 2026, bringing in revenue that could help recovery efforts after a catastrophic cyclone last November.

Last year, Sri Lanka set a tourism record, with 2.36 million visitors entering the country. The government has also launched an investment drive to bring in $500 million for the tourism sector this year—a significant increase over the $329 million secured last year.

Cyclone Ditwah killed 645 people and led to $4.1 billion in damages. Last month, the International Monetary Fund reduced 2026 growth projections for the country from 3.1 percent to 2.9 percent. That Sri Lanka would turn to tourism revenue to help recovery efforts speaks to the importance of the sector but perhaps also to the less-than-adequate international humanitarian response.

Since the disaster, 22 countries have provided aid to Sri Lanka, but the U.N. says much more is needed. As of late December, less than half of the $7.8 million required by UNICEF for emergency aid for children had been pledged or received.

Under the Radar

Former Nepali Prime Minister K.P. Sharma Oli has given a written statement to a government inquiry commission undertaking a probe of a deadly crackdown on protests last September that led to the leader’s resignation.

It’s unclear what the statement covered, but that Oli gave it at all is significant; he had previously rejected the commission as unconstitutional and biased against him. Oli’s willingness to cooperate with the investigation is no small matter during a tense moment for Nepal. National elections are just two months away, and many Nepalis are eager to vote new and younger faces into power.

Though several new political parties have registered with Nepal’s election commission, including a few linked to last year’s protest movement, there is a strong chance that an established party could return to power. Oli himself could become prime minister again. His statement to investigators could ease anxiety for those who don’t want him to return to power, even if just a bit.

FP’s Most Read This Week

Regional Voices

In the Daily Star, economist Fahmida Khatun assesses the late Khaleda Zia’s economic legacy: “Her tenure, which began in 1991, coincided with a critical phase as Bangladesh gradually shifted from a state-controlled economic framework towards a market-oriented, export-led development model,” she writes. “It marked a broader reconfiguration of the relationship between the state, the market, and society.”

In the Express Tribune, Ph.D. candidate Khushboo Farid calls on Pakistan to invest in nuclear energy: “The peaceful utilisation of nuclear energy can become the ground-breaking project for holistic progress and poverty alleviation in Pakistan where millions are still deprived of sufficient electricity and clean water,” she writes.

In the Indian Express, economist Madan Sabnavis discusses why India’s low inflation rate, currently at less than 1 percent, isn’t necessarily good news: “Some sections of households may benefit, while some producers may be adversely impacted,” he writes. “The minimum amount of inflation that is needed to keep the economy ticking is around 4 per cent in our case—the target for monetary policy.”