Explained : Former Diplomat Outlines What It Means For Power And Politics and Its Impact

File photo of Ashok Sajjanhar (ETV Bharat)

By Saurabh Shukla

New Delhi: Senior foreign policy expert and former ambassador Ashok Sajjanhar, who served in the Indian Foreign Service for over three decades, examined the immediate and long-term consequences of the US action both for Venezuela and for the wider global order.

A former Indian ambassador to Kazakhstan, Sweden and Latvia with diplomatic experience in Washington, he addresses questions of legality and democracy, the strategic pull of oil and the responses of major powers. He also outlines what this episode means for India, arguing that the crisis underscores the urgency of economic strength, strategic autonomy and credible national defence in an increasingly uncertain world.

In an exclusive interaction with ETV Bharat, Sajjanhar outlined the consequences of Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro’s capture by the USA.

ETV Bharat: With the US confirming the attack and President Maduro being taken out of Venezuela, how significant is this moment for the global order?

Ashok Sajjanhar: It’s absolutely huge. But it is in line with what President Trump has been articulating both in terms of his national security strategy that was announced just a few weeks ago and also the actions that he has been taking over the last several months in which he has said that Venezuela is active in trading in drugs and sending these drugs and also illegal immigrants into the United States.

United States has bombed many boats and small ships carrying drugs in seas. About a hundred people have been killed in the attacks. They also bombed one of the land ports in Venezuela, again, on the same charge.

Basically maintaining that Venezuela and its President is at the head of the drug cartel. So this is what they have maintained. And in the national security strategy, they have said that they will have total dominance over the Western Hemisphere, the hemispheric defenses of paramount importance. This appears to be in total violation of international law and the UN principles, UN Charter in maintaining territorial integrity and sovereignty of independent states.

ETV Bharat: What are the immediate risks for Venezuela now—political instability, internal conflict, or prolonged foreign involvement?

Ashok Sajjanhar: The foreign involvement we see is only of the United States. I don’t think they will be able to garner much support from any other country. You know, there are many South American countries like Brazil, Colombia, etc., which have been against such action by the United States. Far away though China and Russia have been speaking against US action and in support of Venezuela, I don’t think they will be in a position to do anything significant, substantial or concrete.

I don’t think there is going to be any international support, at least overt support. If there is covert support through guerrilla actions of some of the neighboring countries like Colombia and all that, that is quite another matter. As far as internal stability is concerned I think more details are yet to come out.

It is not known whether there was any resistance that was offered to the US helicopters when they swooped down upon the presidential palace in Caracas to apprehend President Maduro and his wife. And what is the situation in Caracas at the moment? So it will really depend on what is the measure of support that President Maduro and his party is able to get and how many people come out on the streets against the move. Now the economic condition in Venezuela has been very dire. Inflation has been rising. There has been a shortage of goods or food items in the country. So there is a lot of disaffection against Maduro.

ETV Bharat: What do you see happening to Nicolas Maduro now, will he face trial in the US, as Washington has indicated?

Ashok Sajjanhar: Apparently, this is what Marco Rubio has said that he will be tried as a criminal as someone who’s been dealing in drugs. So he will be tried in the US courts. So we will really have to wait and see what happens there. Also we will have to wait and see the sort of discussions that take place on the issue in the United Nations. It is going to be raised by China and by Russia together in the UN Security Council. We will really have to wait and see as to what are the sort of passions that this action is able to evoke amongst the people of the country.

ETV Bharat: How convincing is the argument that this action was taken to defend democracy, rather than to secure strategic and energy interests?

Ashok Sajjanhar: This argument sounds rather thin, meaning who is an external power to impose democracy and to defend democracy in another country? And if that has to be done, can another country do it unilaterally, meaning there are so many countries where there is military dictatorship, there is no democracy, the United States doesn’t go around or any other country doesn’t go around trying to impose democracy on another independent state, meaning it is not that the world is looking at a uniform system of governance of democracy and democracy is also there are of very many different types.

You have the hybrid governance that you see in Pakistan, where the real power is in the hands of the army and it is only the facade of a civilian government that is there in front. But the United States is very happy to support that. And here you might not agree with the results of the elections or the manner in which elections were conducted in Venezuela. So it is not by force that you change one system and implant democracy onto that system.

ETV Bharat: How much of this intervention is really about oil and what does it mean for India’s long standing diplomatic and energy ties with Venezuela?

Ashok Sajjanhar: India has invested in the oil sector in Venezuela. We have been significant importers also of oil from Venezuela. And so we really have to now wait and see, because in terms of security and strategy, it is far away from us.

So in that sense, it does not impact us. But then India would like the rule of law to be observed, because if rule of law can be flouted with impunity by any country by virtue of its power, then of course it does not send out the right message. First, we had Russia violating the UN principles and UN Charter four years ago by walking into Ukraine and continues to be there for the last four years.

And now we have the so called oldest democracy in the world going in like this. So this does not send the right signal messaging and sets a very wrong precedent as far as the world is concerned. Because any other country which is powerful could feel tempted to go in and occupy another smaller country.

ETV Bharat: What is the most important lesson India should draw from this episode while shaping its foreign policy?

Ashok Sajjanhar: We have contested borders on the north with China where 3,400 kilometers of our boundary is still undefined and undemarcated. And on the western side, we have Pakistan, which continues to claim part of our territory. So India needs to erect very strong defensive fences on these border areas, whether it is Arunachal Pradesh where all of the state’s 93,000 square kilometers is coveted by China and make ourselves strong.

I think that is the way that we need to progress. India has been moving in that direction, of course, but then we need to quicken our base because of the growing geopolitical turbulence and increasing economic uncertainties, both due to the artificial intelligence and trade related matters. There is huge economic uncertainty. So we have to continue to grow and we have to continue to diversify so that we are not dependent on one source, either of production or only one market.

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