Explained: This article explains the political background, key decisions, and possible outcomes related to Explained : Despite subsequent losses, Left vote may be key to Bengal contest and Its Impact and why it matters right now.
Political dynamics often move in strange and unintended directions. In the last Assembly elections of West Bengal, the TMC had secured 215 of the 294 seats, while the BJP won 77. The CPM and other Left parties had failed to win any seats.
This time, the CPM — once forced to shift its vote to the BJP, albeit unofficially, to counter TMC chairperson Mamata Banerjee’s onslaught — may become a factor that helps her come to power for the fourth consecutive term, say analysts.
The CPM and other Left parties maintain that their fight is against both the TMC and the BJP and are offering voters a third alternative in the state, which is increasingly becoming polarised between these two forces.
CPM central committee member Sujan Chakraborty says, “Our fight is against both Mamata and the BJP and we want to safeguard the interest of the poor people who are facing the brunt of their policies.”
Many acknowledge that people vote for parties that can form the government. However, fed up with the binary approach of the TMC and the BJP, voters have begun to look for a third party, they claim.
However, a split in the Opposition vote could favour Mamata.
Observers say the TMC’s call to “boycott the BJP” is a clever ploy as even a small percentage of rise in the non-BJP vote share could work in its favour.
The shift in the CPM’s stand in 2011 became evident when it was ousted from power by the TMC, ending its 34-year rule in the state. Prompted by the ground reality prevailing at the time, it had to adapt to several measures for survival. The TMC victory was followed by an alleged state-wide hunt by its supporters for CPM cadres, which led to physical attacks, destruction and takeover of their property.
The ensuing situation forced a large number of CPM cadres, particularly the rank and file in the rural and semi-urban areas, to flee their homes and seek shelter elsewhere. This had also led to a shift in the CPM cadres’ votes to the BJP.
The party, which once enjoyed a vote share of 40 per cent in the state, has steadily lost its vote share in every subsequent election from 2011 onwards.
When the Left cadres realised that the party was unable to stand up to Mamata, they turned to the BJP, especially after 2014 as Narendra Modi came to power at the Centre. The shift in the Left’s support helped the BJP gain ground and become the main political opposition to Mamata.
Consequently, the CPM and other Left parties were left empty-handed in the 2021 Assembly elections. In the 2024 parliamentary election, the TMC won 29 of the 42 Lok Sabha seats from the state, the BJP won 12 while the Congress managed to secure just one seat. The Left parties again failed to win even a single seat.
However, the Left has realised that the BJP is perhaps a greater threat to them if it comes to power. Besides, the dust over the anti-CPM campaign has settled down and the two sides have to come to an arrangement for peaceful co-existence in many towns and villages. The sharp enmity between the two that existed earlier has now been blunted in much of the state.
“Though the party did not win a single parliamentary seat in the 2024 Lok Sabha elections, its vote share is likely to increase,” says Sandipan Chakraborty, Kolkata-based journalist who follows Left politics.
He said the party’s vote share was over six per cent, and was likely to increase with the support of voters looking for options beyond the TMC and the BJP.
The CPM and its Left allies will contest 235 of the 294 seats and leave the remaining seats to other secular parties. “We welcome the increase in vote share of any Left and secular party. This encourages the democratic and liberal forces in the state,” says Kushal Debnath, leader of the newly formed People’s Forum for Struggle.
However, the consolidation of secular votes working in favour of the BJP, which is banking on the anti-incumbency factor and a strong Hindu identity narrative, is a possibility that cannot be ruled out in an increasingly polarised electorate.