Market Update: We break down the business implications, market impact, and expert insights related to Market Update: What Smart People Are Saying About Oil Prices – Full Analysis.
Energy prices could remain elevated, with more supply affected now than in 2022, when Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine triggered a global energy shock, wrote Freya Beamish, the chief economist at GlobalData.TS Lombard.
A key question is how long it lasts.
“Our lean is toward Trump declaring victory and walking away,” she wrote, arguing that the pain of high energy prices in an election year — when affordability is already a central issue — raises the likelihood of a policy reversal.
“Previous episodes have suggested that Trump does not like market pain,” she added.
If the US declares victory, Beamish assumes Iran would do the same, resume oil exports, and halt strikes in the Gulf — though she cautioned that isn’t guaranteed.
If not, she warned, the US may struggle to fully stop Iran from disrupting the Strait of Hormuz. In that case, government-backed shipping insurance and naval escorts would only partly offset the disruption, keeping energy prices elevated.