Market Update: Thai business groups push diesel tax cuts as energy crisis intensifies – Full Analysis

Economic risks under different war scenarios

The government reviewed several economic scenarios linked to the Middle East conflict:

• If the war ends within one month without regional escalation, the impact on Thailand would be limited, with GDP growth remaining near 2%.
• If the conflict lasts three months, global crude prices could stay above $100 per barrel, pushing up inflation in March–April and weighing more heavily on the economy.
• In a worst-case scenario involving wider regional or global escalation, oil prices would surge further, causing severe economic disruption.

Even if the conflict ends quickly, oil prices are expected to remain elevated for several months due to increased global demand as countries replenish strategic reserves.

Concerns over damaged energy infrastructure

The conflict has already caused significant damage to oil and gas infrastructure in the Middle East, which may disrupt production for some time.

The government has instructed the Energy Ministry to reduce reliance on Middle Eastern oil imports and source supplies from other regions through PTT Public Company Limited. Refineries have also been told to operate at full capacity to ensure sufficient domestic supply.

Authorities are also working with the private sector to speed up fuel transport and address pricing imbalances between industrial fuel sales and retail pump prices.

Transport sector threatens protest action

Thongyoo Khongkhan, president of the Land Transport Federation, said the group had repeatedly called on the government to act but had yet to receive a response.

The Federation plans to stage a “Truck Power” demonstration at Laem Chabang Port on March 18, 2026, with more than 250 trucks expected to participate, to press its demands and highlight the sector’s challenges.

In addition to price controls, the group has called for a temporary suspension of refined oil exports to ensure adequate domestic reserves and boost confidence during a prolonged crisis.

Industry urges balanced energy pricing

Nava Chantanasurakon, vice chairman of the Federation of Thai Industries, said stable energy prices are crucial to easing pressure on businesses, as transport costs are a major component of production and trade.

“The industrial sector wants to see energy price management that achieves an appropriate balance between supporting business costs and maintaining overall economic stability,” he said.

He warned that if diesel prices rise sharply, transport costs would increase immediately and be passed on to consumers through higher prices for goods and services.

The industry also expressed concern over projections that diesel prices could reach 40 baht per litre, describing this as a worrying level that could have widespread impacts on production, logistics, and household living costs.

However, the sector supports the government’s approach of avoiding sudden price hikes and instead implementing gradual adjustments to prevent economic shocks.