Market Update: Economy loses US$54.1bn to illicit financial flows     – Full Analysis

By Ernest Bako WUBONTO

Ghana lost an estimated US$54.1billion to illicit financial flows (IFFs) over the past decade – placing the country third among the top-10 most affected nations in sub-Saharan Africa, a new report has revealed.

The losses, largely driven by trade misinvoicing and money laundering, represent one of the most severe capital leakages on the African continent and continue to undermine domestic revenue mobilisation and development financing.

The findings are contained in a report by Washington-based think-tank Global Financial Integrity (GFI), titled Trade-Related Illicit Financial Flows in Africa, 2013–2022. It estimates that the total trade value gap across sub-Saharan Africa reached US$152.9billion in 2022, with no country in the region making meaningful progress on curbing such losses during the period.

Trade misinvoicing – the deliberate under- or over-statement of values on Customs invoices – was identified as the dominant channel for illicit capital flight.

For Ghana – a major exporter of gold, cocoa and crude oil  manipulated trade transactions have proved particularly damaging.

The report shows that approximately 28 percent of the country’s total trade value was affected by misinvoicing over the decade, exceeding the regional average of 24 percent. This implies that nearly US$3 out of every US$10 in international trade was implicated in illicit flows.

Illicit outflows rose sharply toward the end of the period, increasing from US$4.7billion in 2013 to a peak of over US$9billion in 2021 before easing to US$6billion for 2022.

Ghana’s cumulative losses trail only South Africa and Nigeria, firmly placing the country among the three most affected economies in the region.

“Illicit financial flows represent a formidable barrier to Africa’s inclusive growth and economic sovereignty,” GFI noted. “The continent has effectively become a net creditor to the world, as cumulative illicit capital flight has exceeded its external debt stock.”

Trade with advanced economies

In trade with advanced economies, South Africa recorded the largest trade value gap at US$238.4billion – far ahead of Nigeria’s US$29.7billion. Côte d’Ivoire followed with US$24.6billion, Ghana at US$20.5billion and Angola with US$19billion.

These figures highlight significant mispricing in transactions with developed trading partners in Europe and North America, where complex supply chains and pricing opacity create opportunities for abuse.

Smaller economies such as Gambia and Comoros, despite modest trade volumes, face some of the highest proportional risks… reflecting deep-seated structural vulnerabilities.

High-value commodity exports were found to be especially exposed, owing to pricing opacity and power imbalances between African exporters and multinational buyers.

Africa’s top-10 IFF losers

South Africa tops the continental list with US$478.1billion in cumulative trade value gaps, accounting for 42 percent of all trade-related IFFs in sub-Saharan Africa.

Nigeria ranks second with US$77.7billion, followed by Ghana (US$54.1billion), Côte d’Ivoire (US$47.7billion) and Kenya (US$47.5billion).

The rest of the top-10 include Zambia (US$35.8billion), Tanzania (US$35.5billion), Angola (US$35.4billion), Senegal (US$25.5billion) and Ethiopia (US$24.6billion).

Public services and human development

The report warns that high IFFs have severe implications for public services and human development. Countries with elevated illicit outflows spend, on average, 25 percent less on health and 58 percent less on education than peers with lower losses.

For Ghana, the billions lost annually translate directly into funding gaps for schools, hospitals and critical infrastructure while increasing reliance on borrowing.

Across Africa, GFI estimates that tax revenue losses linked to IFFs amount to about US$17billion annually, exacerbating debt pressures.

GFI recommendations

To stem the losses, GFI urged governments to strengthen Customs capacity, deploy advanced data analytics and tighten legal frameworks to criminalise trade misinvoicing and money laundering.

The report also called for establishment of public beneficial ownership registries to expose shell companies. Currently, only 15 African countries have implemented such registries, a gap described as a major obstacle in the fight against IFFs.

“With decisive action – from tightening trade oversight to reclaiming stolen assets – African nations can significantly curtail illicit financial flows,” GFI stressed.

For Ghana, reversing an estimated US$54.1billion capital loss over a decade is not only a fiscal necessity but a prerequisite for financing sustainable development, strengthening accountability and unlocking long-term economic potential.

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