Market Update: CPA Business Executives Have Renewed Optimism About the U.S. Economy – Full Analysis

CPA business leaders reported higher optimism about the U.S. economy during the first quarter of 2026, while confidence in their own companies’ prospects also improved, according to the latest AICPA and CIMA Economic Outlook Survey, which was released on Thursday.

Executives continued to cite domestic economic conditions as their top concern, followed by employee and benefits costs and the costs of materials, supplies, and equipment. Inflation concerns retracted during the quarter, although the survey concluded before the recent military activity in the Middle East.

The AICPA and CIMA survey polls CEOs, CFOs, controllers, and other CPAs in U.S. companies who hold executive and senior management accounting roles. The Q1 2026 survey includes 236 qualified responses.

Thirty-nine percent of business executives said they were optimistic about the U.S. economy’s outlook over the next 12 months, rebounding from 28% in the past quarter.

Executives’ outlook for their own companies improved, increasing six percentage points from 41% in Q4 of 2025 to 47% in Q1 of 2026. Plans for business expansion also increased, with 55% of executives expecting growth this quarter compared to 48% last quarter.

Among their top concerns, domestic economic conditions remained in the top position, while employee and benefits costs and materials/supplies/equipment costs each rose two spots (No. 2 and No. 3), respectively. Inflation, the No. 2 top concern last quarter, slid to the middle of the list (No. 5).

“Business leaders are feeling a renewed sense of optimism this quarter, both about the U.S. economy and the near‑term prospects for their own organizations. While economic conditions, workforce costs, and input prices remain key areas of focus, we’re encouraged to see inflation pressures easing earlier in the quarter,” Tom Hood, executive vice president of business engagement and growth at the Association of International Certified Professional Accountants, the alliance formed by the AICPA and CIMA, said in a statement. “That said, we’re mindful that recent geopolitical developments could affect inflation trends, and we’re watching those dynamics closely. Even with this uncertainty, the steady rise in company outlooks and expansion plans shows that executives are positioning their businesses for growth. With disciplined planning and continued investment in talent and innovation, we believe there is real opportunity ahead to build resilience and outperform in the coming year.”

The AICPA survey is a forward-looking indicator that tracks hiring and business-related expectations for the next 12 months. In comparison, the U.S. Department of Labor’s February employment report looks back on the previous month’s hiring trends.

Other key findings of the survey include:

• The number of business executives who expect a recession by the end of 2026 decreased heavily from 52% to 36%.
• The overall hiring picture remains largely similar to last quarter—56% (53% in Q4) of business executives saying they have the right number of employees and 31% (32% in Q4) noting too few.
• Entry-level hiring also remained level at 57%, showing no change. Only 19% noted an increase in entry-level hiring for the quarter, with business growth and the need for artificial intelligence skills as the primary drivers.
• Profit and revenue growth both rebounded slightly. Projected revenue growth for the next 12 months is now expected to be 2.9% (up from 2% in Q4) and profit expectations are now projected to be at 1.6% this quarter (up from 0.8% in Q4).
• Sentiment on the global economy also turned more positive, rising from 22% to 25%, quarter over quarter.

Methodology: The first-quarter AICPA and CIMA Economic Outlook Survey was conducted from Feb. 3-24, 2026, and included 236 qualified responses from CPAs and Chartered Global Management Accountant (CGMA) designation holders in leadership positions, such as CFO or controller. A copy of the report can be found on aicpa-cima.com.

Thanks for reading CPA Practice Advisor!

Subscribe for free to get personalized daily content, newsletters, continuing education, podcasts, whitepapers and more…

Subscribe
Already registered? Log In

Need more information? Read the FAQs