Market Update: We break down the business implications, market impact, and expert insights related to Market Update: Closing the ‘deterrence gap’: German military association calls for war economy – Full Analysis.
By Diana Resnik
Published on
Germany’s Armed Forces Association (DBwV) is sounding the alarm: the country needs to put its defence industry on a war footing, and fast.
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“The danger already exists now — and it is growing every day,” association head André Wüstner told Handelsblatt, warning that Russia could be ready for a confrontation with NATO far sooner than the 2029 timeline experts had previously assumed.
Wüstner called on German defence manufacturers to expand capacity and introduce shift working, steps he described as necessary to move toward “a kind of war economy” if tensions continue to escalate.
Europe’s vulnerability is compounded, he argued, by Washington’s unreliability under Donald Trump, which has left the continent with what he called a “deterrence gap”.
The DBwV represents active and former soldiers, reservists and military personnel across Germany.
Iran war hands Putin a golden opportunity
The Iran war has handed Vladimir Putin an opening he will not waste, according to Wüstner.
“Strengthened by fresh income from oil sales and spurred on by the decreasing supply of air defence systems to Ukraine, he can further intensify his brutal attacks on the infrastructure and civilian population,” the DBwV chief told Handelsblatt.
Wüstner warned that Europe’s “deterrence gap” could embolden Russia to step up hybrid attacks — and raised the prospect of incursions on NATO’s eastern flank.
The Iran war, he argued, must not become a distraction from the threat on Europe’s doorstep.
Rising oil prices are filling the Kremlin’s coffers
Three weeks into the conflict, the economic windfall for Moscow is already stark.
Brent crude was trading just below $71 a barrel two days before the first strikes.
It neared $120 at peak uncertainty and remains above $106 at the time of publication.
US WTI crude climbed from $65 to above $100 over the same period. Russia’s Urals blend has surged more than 66% over the past month, last trading above $96 a barrel.
The numbers translate directly into Kremlin revenue.
Instead of the $99bn (€86bn) projected for 2026, Moscow now stands to earn $169bn (€146bn) from oil exports alone, plus a further $50bn (€43bn) from gas — a total windfall of $84bn (€73bn) in additional raw material revenues and $45bn (€39bn) in extra state income.
Putin, meanwhile, is playing the statesman.
Positioning himself as a reliable energy partner, he told Europeans this week that Russia stood ready to supply oil and gas.
“We need signals from them that they are ready to co-operate with us,” he said.
US weapons bound for Ukraine are being diverted
The war is also squeezing Ukraine’s armoury.
Patriot anti-aircraft missiles urgently needed in Kyiv are being redirected to the Iran theatre — piling fresh pressure on European allies already stretched by years of military aid commitments, and on Germany in particular, which lacks sufficient air defence systems to protect its own airspace.