Market Update: We break down the business implications, market impact, and expert insights related to Market Update: Business insights and impact on the UK economy – Full Analysis.
3. Financial performance
Turnover
Trading businesses were asked how their turnover in December 2025 compared with November 2025, excluding any seasonal trading.
Figure 1: 32% of trading businesses reported that their turnover had decreased in December 2025 compared with the previous calendar month
Turnover, businesses currently trading, weighted by count, UK, 1 March 2022 to 31 December 2025
Source: Business Insights and Conditions Survey from the Office for National Statistics
Notes:
- Data are plotted in the middle of the period of each wave.
Download this chart Figure 1: 32% of trading businesses reported that their turnover had decreased in December 2025 compared with the previous calendar month
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Around a third (32%) of trading businesses reported a decrease in their turnover in December 2025, when compared with the previous month. This is up 4 percentage points from November 2025, and is the highest proportion seen since the question was introduced in March 2022. However, the movements are broadly in line with those seen around this time in previous years.
Only 13% of trading businesses reported an increase in their turnover, which was broadly stable compared with both November 2025 and December 2024. Less than half (45%) reported that their turnover stayed the same.
For trading businesses with 10 or more employees, 35% reported a decrease in their turnover, which was broadly stable compared with November 2025. This proportion was also similar to results for December in previous years. Over one in five (21%) businesses reported an increase in their turnover, which was broadly stable compared with November 2025.
The proportion of businesses reporting increases in turnover rose as business size increased. The proportion for businesses with 0 to 9 employees was 12%, while this proportion was 30% for businesses with 250 or more employees. The proportion for businesses with 250 or more employees was 7 percentage points higher than January (23%).
In contrast, businesses with 250 or more employees reported the lowest proportion for turnover decreased by business size, at 27%. This proportion was 32% for businesses with 0 to 9 employees.
The industries with the highest proportion of businesses reporting a decrease in turnover in December 2025 were:
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the administrative and support services activities industry (38%)
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the construction industry (37%)
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the manufacturing and wholesale and retail industries (both 36%)
Turnover expectations
Trading businesses were asked what their expectations were for their turnover in February 2026.
Figure 2: 20% of trading businesses reported that they expect their turnover to decrease in February 2026
Turnover expectations, businesses currently trading, weighted by count, UK, 1 April 2022 to 28 February 2026
Source: Business Insights and Conditions Survey from the Office for National Statistics
Notes:
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Caution should be taken when interpreting expectations questions, as the employees responding on behalf of businesses may not have full oversight of all their business’s future expectations.
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Data are plotted in the middle of the period of each wave.
Download this chart Figure 2: 20% of trading businesses reported that they expect their turnover to decrease in February 2026
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1 in 5 (20%) trading businesses reported that they expect a decrease in their turnover in February 2026. This is 5 percentage points down compared with expectations for January 2026, but is broadly stable with February 2025 and in line with the movement between January and February 2025. The accommodation and food service activities industry reported the highest proportion of businesses expecting a decrease (36%), though this is down 17 percentage points from January.
Nearly 1 in 6 (16%) trading businesses expect their turnover to increase in February 2026. This is a 3 percentage point rise from January and is broadly stable compared with expectations for February 2025.
Larger businesses were more likely to expect an increase in turnover; the proportion ranged from 15% for businesses with 0 to 9 employees, to 28% for businesses with 100 to 249 employees. This pattern has been seen since the question was introduced to the Business Insights and Conditions Survey (BICS) in April 2022.
Further details on financial performance, including all response options broken down by industry and size band, are available in our accompanying dataset.
Turnover challenges
Trading businesses were asked what challenges, if any, were impacting their turnover in early January 2026.
Over 3 in 10 (31%) trading businesses reported that economic uncertainty had an impact on their turnover, down 2 percentage points from early December 2025. This has been the most reported challenge since early October 2022.
Other challenges reported included:
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cost of labour (22%)
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cost of materials (20%)
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competition (19%)
The proportions reported for all three of these challenges remained broadly stable compared with proportions reported in early December 2025.
Less than 3 in 10 (29%) trading businesses indicated that they were not currently experiencing any turnover challenges. This is broadly stable compared with early December 2025 and is broadly stable compared with a year ago.
For trading businesses with 10 or more employees, the cost of labour was the most reported issue, at 36%. This was broadly stable compared with early December 2025. Businesses with 10 to 49 employees were more likely to report the cost of labour as a challenge than businesses with 250 or more employees (37% compared with 20%).
1 in 5 (20%) trading businesses with 10 or more employees indicated that they were not currently experiencing any turnover challenges in early January 2026.