Market Update: A weaker rupee isn’t really hurting Indian economy| Business News – Full Analysis

The surge in car exports seen of late is an indicator of rising acceptance of India’s manufacturing prowess globally, the Economic Survey for 2025-26 stated.

India’s automobile industry shipped more than 53 lakh vehicles in FY25 and posted double-digit growth in the first half of 2025-26, it noted. A robust demand-side recovery has driven both production growth and sales in the post-pandemic period, the survey stated.

Overall, the industry has recorded nearly 33% growth in production over the last decade—from FY15 to FY25), it added.

The Economic Survey 2025-26 has recommended age-based limits to be considered for access to social media and gambling apps to counter what it called “digital addiction” in the country.

“Platforms should be made responsible for enforcing age verification and age-appropriate defaults, particularly for social media, gambling apps, auto-play features, and targeted advertising,” it said.

The survey recommended families promote screen-time limits, device-free hours and shared offline activities.

The weaker rupee isn’t really hurting the Indian economy for now as that softens the impact of higher US tariff on exports.

The rupee’s depreciating valuation does not accurately reflect India’s stellar economic fundamentals, according to Economic Survey 2025-26.

“In other words, the rupee therefore is punching below its weight. Of course, it does not hurt to have an undervalued rupee in these times, as it offsets to some extent the impact of higher American tariffs on Indian goods.”

“There’s no threat of higher inflation from pricier crude either.”

India’s steel industry, the second largest in the world, has come under global pricing pressures amid a raw-material crunch, according to the Economic Survey 2025-26 released on Thursday.

The steel sector is the backbone of industrialisation and infrastructure, securing India’s position as the world’s second-largest crude steel producer. The industry has undergone a major transformation in the last five years, largely due to by strong domestic demand from the construction and manufacturing sectors.

“However, the sector faces challenges related to international price disparity and raw material security,” the Survey stated.

“India was also a net importer of steel during FY26 (April–October), primarily due to low international prices, which resulted in lower margins on exports and cheaper imports.”

India’s capex stood at 4% of the GDP in FY25, indicating that the govt continues to the heavy-lifting for the Indian economy, according to Economic Survey 2025-26.

The government has scaled capex from an average of 1.7% of GDP in the pre-pandemic period to an average of 2.9% of GDP in the years after the pandemic.

India’s fiscal deficit fell to 4.8% of the GDP in FY25 from 9.2% in FY21 in the throes of the pandemic. The target is at 4.4% in FY26, according to Economic Survey 2025-26.

That, even as the government’s capex rose to 4% of the GDP.

The government’s revenue buoyancy, driven by strong direct tax and record GST collections, have helped narrow the gap.

Domestic consumption, which accounts for 60% of India’s economy, continues to be the primary driver of economic growth, according to Economic Survey 2025-26.

Strong consumption demand, particularly in urban areas, has supported overall economic activity.

The government’s efforts to reduce tax—on income, goods and services—have improved urban consumption, providing further momentum to India’s GDP growth rate.

India’s external stability continues to be a key strength for the internal economy. That’s helped the country remain relatively insulated from global volatility.

However, the Economic Survey 2025-26 cautioned that the impact of global shocks could surface with a lag, and that policymakers need to remain vigilant.

According to the Economic Survey 2025-26 authored by India’s CEA V. Anantha Nageswaran, the global monetary policy picture is still a work in progress — from neutral to an accommodative stance.

However, variance in growth-inflation dynamics has led to divergent trajectories of central bank policy rates.

This has implications for capital flows as fund houses trot the globe in search of higher yields.

Talks for a likely India-US trade deal are likely to conclude in CY 2026, according to Economic Survey 2025-26.

According to Economic Survey 2026, the Indian economy grew in FY26 despite a tariff overhang. Sure, the geopolitical headwinds translate into external uncertainties for India, but outlook for India’s growth remains steady.

India’s fiscal trajectory stands out amid elevated global debt, Economic Survey 2025-26 stated. The GST rate cut changes will support demand and revenue in FY27.

The Economic Survey 2025-26 sees India’s GDP growth rate at 6.8% to 7.2% in FY27 and 7.4% in FY26.

The domestic demand and investment scenario will strengthen in FY27, even as India eyes sustained medium-term growth at 7%.

The downside risk, however, comes from geopolitical headwinds.

The Economic Survey 2025-26 lays out a strategic vision for navigating a global economy strained by a tougher US tariff regime.

Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman has tabled the Economic Survey 2025-26 in the Parliament. The document has yet to be released in the public domain.

After two days of India-EU FTA highs, India’s stock market declined before tabling of the Economic Survey 2025-26 as investor attention shifted to the Union Budget 2026 due on Sunday, 1 February.

The 30-share S&P BSE Sensex fell as much as 0.77% even as the wider NSE Nifty 50 was trading 0.72% lower.

Investors will watch Economic Survey 2025-26 for cues on India’s fiscal path amid geopolitical headwinds stemming from US tariff policy, as well as sectoral trends that can influence equity and currency markets.

The Survey often sets the narrative framework within which the Union Budget and future economic decisions are made.

To be sure, the Economic Survey started as a part of the Union Budget, only to be separated in 1964 as a report card of the government before the budget presentation.

Today, the Economic Survey provides lawmakers and the public with context and data on the state of the economy.

Speaking ahead of the budget session today that will see tabling of the Economic Survey 2025-26, PM Modi heaped praise on the India-EU FTA and asked traders in India to use the opportunity to take the “best quality” products into the now open market.

The Parliament will first take up Question Hour, with questions listed separately to be asked and answered by the concerned Ministers. This will be followed by the laying of papers on the Table by members of the Union Council of Ministers.

Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman is scheduled to table Economic Survey 2025-26, followed by MoS Civil Aviation Murlidhar Mohol laying down papers related to the Ministry of Civil Aviation.

The House will also witness the presentation of the 13th Report of the Business Advisory Committee. The report will be presented by Kiren Rijiju and Kodikunnil Suresh.

Presentation Date: Thursday, 29 January 2026.

Timing: It is scheduled to be tabled in the Parliament at 11:00 am by Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman.

Press briefing: Following the presentation of the Survey, CEA V. Anantha Nageswaran typically holds a press conference in the late afternoon to discuss the key highlights.

Where to download: Once presented in Parliament, the full document is made available to the public in PDF format. You can download it from the official Union Budget website: indiabudget.gov.in/economicsurvey

The Economic Survey 2025-26 sets the stage for Union Budget 2026. While the Budget focuses on future taxes and spending, the Survey explains why those decisions are necessary by highlighting which sectors (like agriculture or manufacturing) need support. It is a vital resource for investors, economists, and students to understand the government’s fiscal direction.

The survey is prepared by the Economic Division of the Department of Economic Affairs, under the direct supervision of the Chief Economic Advisor, currently Dr. V. Anantha Nageswaran. While it is presented by the finance minister, it remains an independent assessment by the CEA’s team.

It is the report card of the central government, detailing economic performance over the past year. The survey reviews trends in GDP growth, inflation, employment, and foreign exchange reserves. Beyond just data, it provides a forward-looking outlook and recommends policy shifts to address structural challenges.

The Economic Survey 2025-26 is expected to strike a cautionary tone regarding external risks. Rising trade protectionism and potential shifts in US tariff policy remain “known unknowns” for India’s export machinery.

The key themes anticipated in Economic Survey 2025-26 include:

– A manufacturing pivot: Progress on production linked incentive schemes as India seeks to capture supply chains shifting away from China.

– Fiscal consolidation: Analysis of the government’s glide path to bring the fiscal deficit toward the 4.4% target.

– The AI Dividend: A new emphasis on how digital infrastructure and artificial intelligence could boost productivity in the services sector.