Explained: This article explains the political background, key decisions, and possible outcomes related to Explained : Is Assam ready for change? and Its Impact and why it matters right now.
The government’s ‘anti-encroachment drive’ openly targets Muslims, and continued during the month of Ramzan. Ahead of Eid, 566 families were evicted from Hasila Beel in Goalpara despite a high court order.
With the election notified and the model code of conduct in force, overtly bigoted messaging has taken a backseat, but there has been no let-up in attempts to polarise Assamese society. At a recent roadshow, Sarma was welcomed by BJP workers showering flowers on him from bulldozers lined up on both sides of the road.
Sarma’s hate speech and polarising tactics do betray an anxiety about the likely verdict on his governance record. According to the state’s own 2023-24 Economic Survey, nearly 10 lakh educated youth were jobless in Assam.
There’s also growing discontent among the state’s Scheduled Tribe (ST) communities. In November, the Assam cabinet proposed the creation of ‘ST (Valley)’, a new ST category that would include the Ahoms, Sutias, Moran, Matak, Koch-Rajbongshis and Adivasis.
Before this proposal, 10 per cent of reserved seats in public education and employment went to ST (Plains) communities and 5 per cent to ST (Hills) communities. The move to grant ST status to six more communities — especially Ahoms and Koch-Rajbongshis — has been strongly opposed by existing ST communities.
A recent wave of deadly violence between ethnic Karbi and Hindi-speaking Bihari communities in the Karbi Anglong district also exposed Assam’s tricky ethno-political landscape. The Karbi tribes claimed that Biharis were encroaching on their grazing reserves; they burned down the ancestral home of a BJP leader and the Kheroni market, and looted shops of Bihari residents while the police stood by and watched.
People don’t like what they see. The dissatisfaction with Himanta Biswa Sarma is real. A Guwahati-based social scientist said, on condition of anonymity, “there is a palpable undercurrent of inclusive sentiment in the state. But the question is can the opposition harvest that sentiment politically?”
Sourabh Sen is a Kolkata-based independent writer and commentator on politics, human rights and foreign affairs. More of his writing may be read here