Market Update: We break down the business implications, market impact, and expert insights related to Market Update: Arkansas economy improves in February, 2025 exports decline – Full Analysis.
Arkansas’ overall economy improved in February compared with January, but the state posted a more than 5% decline in the export of manufacturing goods in 2025, according information in the Creighton University Mid-America Business Conditions Index.
The broader mid-America economy also improved in February, but job numbers remain low, prices remain high and most business managers report negative impacts from tariff uncertainty, according to the Creighton report.
The index, which measures economic conditions for a nine-state region stretching from Minnesota to Arkansas, moved above growth neutral for February to its highest level since March 2025. The overall Business Conditions Index increased to a 54.7 from 49.6 in January, according to the Creighton report posted Monday (March 2). Any number above 50 shows growth conditions.
“Creighton’s latest survey indicates that a sharp upturn in new orders for the month pushed the overall index into solid growth territory,” said Ernie Goss, director of Creighton University’s Economic Forecasting Group and the Jack A. MacAllister Chair in Regional Economics in the Heider College of Business.
The February employment index rose to 49.2 from January’s 47.2. February’s job reading was the 11th consecutive month that the index was below growth neutral. The February price gauge climbed to 60.2 from January’s 58.2.
“While the Creighton regional price gauge and the national ISM wholesale price index have somewhat moderated, both indicate manufacturing price levels remain elevated and undermine any chances of a rate cut at the Federal Reserve’s rate-setting committee meetings on March 17-18,” said Goss.
The report also noted that 6 of 10 supply managers say tariffs have caused economic damage to their firm.
According to U.S. International Trade Administration (ITA) data, the regional economy exported $90.8 billion of manufactured goods for all of 2025, down 5.4% compared with $96.1 billion in 2024. The regional import of manufactured goods fell from $101.2 billion in 2024 to $97.1 billion, down 4%. Overall, the regional trade deficit in manufactured goods increased from $5.1 billion in 2024 to $6.2 billion in 2025.
Arkansas’ business conditions index rose to 56.3 from 53.9 in January. The ITA data shows that the Arkansas economy exported $5.8 billion of manufactured goods for all of 2025, down 4.8% compared with $6.1 billion in 2024. Arkansas’ import of manufactured goods fell 8% from $6.7 billion in 2024 to $6.2 billion in 2025.
The Creighton Economic Forecasting Group has conducted the monthly survey of supply managers in nine states since 1994 to produce leading economic indicators of the mid-America economy. States included in the survey are Arkansas, Iowa, Kansas, Minnesota, Missouri, Nebraska, North Dakota, Oklahoma and South Dakota.