Breaking Update: Here’s a clear explanation of the latest developments related to Breaking News:Iran’s soccer federation says World Cup participation in doubt– What Just Happened and why it matters right now.
Iran’s place at the men’s World Cup in three months’ time was put in doubt Monday amid an escalating Middle East conflict sparked by the soccer tournament’s co-host the United States.
Iran are due to play their three group stage games in the U.S. — two in Inglewood, California, then in Seattle — from June 15 to June 26. Cities in Canada and Mexico also will host some of the 104 games.
The U.S. and Israel have targeted Iran in coordinated attacks since Saturday that killed Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei and dozens more senior officials.
It provoked an Iranian response that aimed missiles at U.S. allies including 2022 World Cup host Qatar and Saudi Arabia, which FIFA has picked to stage the 2034 edition.
“What is certain is that after this attack, we cannot be expected to look forward to the World Cup with hope,” Iran’s top soccer official Mehdi Taj, a vice president of the Asian Football Confederation, said.
It is unclear if the state-backed Iranian soccer federation could refuse to send its team to the 48-nation tournament that starts June 11, or the U.S. government could effectively block the team.
Soccer’s governing body FIFA has declined comment since Saturday, when secretary general Mattias Grafström said it would “monitor developments around all issues around the world.”
The White House’s top official overseeing World Cup preparations, Andrew Guiliani, seemed unconcerned Saturday in a social media post.
“We’ll deal with soccer games tomorrow,” Guiliani wrote about Iran, “tonight, we celebrate their opportunity for freedom.”
Iran were among the second-seeded teams in the World Cup draw held Dec. 5 in Washington, D.C., minutes after U.S. President Donald Trump was presented with the inaugural FIFA Peace Prize.
Though Taj and other Iranian soccer officials were denied visas to enter the U.S., the draw outcome was favorable for Iran, especially in the expanded format where most third-place teams advance to the knockout rounds.
Iran start against low-ranked New Zealand, then play one of the weaker top-seeded nations, Belgium, and finish against Egypt.
FIFA’s World Cup regulations envisage a team withdrawing, or being excluded, from the tournament though the legal language is vague to say the least.
In that scenario, according to Article 6.7, “FIFA shall decide on the matter at its sole discretion and take whatever action is deemed necessary.”
“FIFA may decide to replace the Participating Member Association in question with another association,” the rules say.
That legal framing seems to give FIFA president Gianni Infantino wide powers to shape any decision relating to Iran.
Just 18 months ago, the decision announced by Infantino to add Lionel Messi’s team Inter Miami to the 2025 Club World Cup lineup appeared to have no basis in formal tournament rules.
Should Iran pull out of the World Cup — still hugely speculative — their soccer federation would forfeit at least $10.5 million.
FIFA pays $9 million in prize money to each of the 16 federations whose teams fail to advance from the group stage, and all 48 qualified teams get $1.5 million “to cover preparation costs.”
The Iranian federation also would face disciplinary fines from FIFA — at least 250,000 Swiss francs ($321,000) for withdrawing up to three days before the tournament, and at least 500,000 Swiss francs ($642,000) if the decision is in the last month before kickoff.
Iran would risk being excluded by FIFA from qualifying for the next World Cup in 2030 as well.
Iran were a fast World Cup qualifier last March, earning one of eight guaranteed places allocated to the Asian Football Confederation.
Should Iran pull out, the likely replacement from Asia should be Iraq or the United Arab Emirates.
Iraq and the UAE were effectively the ninth- and 10th-ranked Asian teams through the various qualifying groups and advanced to a two-leg playoff last November.
Iraq won 3-2 on aggregate — eliminating the UAE — to advance to the intercontinental playoffs in Mexico and, on March 31, it is scheduled to play an elimination game against Bolivia or Suriname with a World Cup place at stake.
One possible element of uncertainty is the language of the World Cup tournament rules.
FIFA wrote that it can decide to replace a withdrawn team “with another association,” though without specifying the replacement must come from the same continental confederation.