In 2016, Rwanda launched an ambitious plan to bring electricity to every corner of the country. After decades of rebuilding and rapid economic growth, the government saw energy access as the missing link to transforming people’s lives. Many rural families still relied on firewood and charcoal for cooking and lighting. Businesses struggled with unreliable supply. Without electricity, progress in education, healthcare and industry remained limited.
A new study by researchers from the University of Seville, the University of Stirling Business School, and Universidad Loyola Andalucía, working with the Global Labor Organization, examines what happened after this bold reform. Their findings show that Rwanda achieved remarkable gains in electrification. But they also reveal the hidden trade-offs that come with powering a developing economy.
A Bold Strategy to Reach Every Household
Rwanda’s National Electrification Strategy was designed to move fast. Instead of relying only on expanding the national grid, the government adopted a mixed approach. Urban areas would continue to connect to the grid, while rural communities would benefit from off-grid solar systems and mini-grids.
The government simplified regulations, offered tax incentives for renewable energy equipment and encouraged private companies to invest. Long-term contracts helped reduce financial risks for investors. Solar home systems became especially important in remote areas where extending power lines would be too costly.
The strategy aimed not only to provide electricity but also to improve health, create jobs and support economic growth. Electricity was seen as a foundation for development.
The Lights Came On Faster Than Expected
The results were impressive. Within just a few years, electricity access expanded far more quickly than in comparable African countries. By 2019, Rwanda’s access rate was about 17 percentage points higher than it would likely have been without the reform.
This means hundreds of thousands of households gained power sooner than expected. Schools could operate more effectively. Health clinics could refrigerate medicines. Small businesses could stay open after dark. Rural families gained access to lighting and phone charging, improving safety and communication.
The study confirms that Rwanda’s centralized and well-coordinated governance played a major role in this success. Strong leadership and clear targets helped move projects forward quickly.
A Renewable Energy Surprise
However, one finding surprised many observers. Even though the strategy promoted renewable energy like solar and hydropower, the overall share of renewable energy in Rwanda’s energy mix actually declined after 2016.
Why? Before electrification expanded, most energy use came from traditional biomass such as firewood and charcoal. These are technically counted as renewable energy, even though they often harm forests and public health. When families switched from firewood to electricity, the share of biomass fell. Because electricity generation included some fossil fuels, the total percentage of renewables dropped.
In simple terms, Rwanda modernized its energy system. Living conditions improved, but the statistics made it look less renewable. The shift reflects the complexity of energy transitions in developing countries.
The Climate Trade-Off
The study also found that greenhouse gas emissions increased after the strategy began. By 2020, Rwanda’s emissions were noticeably higher than they would likely have been without the reform.
This rise is linked to rapid development. Electrification requires infrastructure. Roads are built. Power plants are constructed. Industries expand. All of this increases energy demand and, in many cases, emissions.
Although Rwanda’s total emissions remain low compared to many other countries, the increase highlights an important challenge. Expanding electricity access supports economic growth and poverty reduction. But it can also lead to higher emissions in the short term.
The researchers describe this as a sustainability paradox. Rwanda succeeded in bringing electricity to more people, but doing so created environmental pressures that must now be managed carefully.
Lessons for Africa and Beyond
Rwanda’s experience offers valuable lessons. First, rapid electrification is possible with strong institutions, clear planning and partnerships with the private sector. Second, energy access and climate goals must be planned together. Expanding electricity should go hand in hand with scaling up low-carbon generation and improving energy efficiency.
Rwanda has shown that it can deliver bold reforms. The next challenge is to ensure that future growth remains both inclusive and environmentally sustainable. The lights are on. Now the focus turns to keeping them clean and green.