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Researchers have developed a new tool that provides a first step toward forecasting space weather weeks in advance instead of just hours.
Developed by the U.S. National Science Foundation National Center for Atmospheric Research (NSF NCAR) and Southwest Research Institute (SwRI), a system for advance space weather warnings could allow agencies and industries to mitigate impacts to GPS, power grids, astronaut safety and more.
The tool, known as PINNBARDS, is advancing a new generation of physics-informed, AI-enabled forecasting tools to better understand and anticipate extreme space weather.
The growing threats of space weather
Space weather – driven by solar flares and Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs) – poses significant risks to our modern, technology-dependent way of life.
When the Sun erupts, it releases a torrent of charged particles and radiation. If these reach Earth, they can trigger geomagnetic storms that interfere with our infrastructure in three main ways:
- Power grid failure: Rapidly changing magnetic fields can induce extra currents in long-distance power lines, potentially blowing out transformers and causing widespread, long-term blackouts.
- Satellite disruption: High-energy particles can fry sensitive electronics on satellites, disrupting everything from GPS navigation to global telecommunications and weather forecasting.
- Radiation hazards: Outside the protection of Earth’s atmosphere, astronauts face lethal doses of radiation. Even passengers on high-altitude polar flights can be exposed to increased radiation levels during severe solar events.
Early space weather warnings are crucial for safeguarding infrastructure
PINNBARDS bridges surface observations of solar active regions and deep solar magnetic dynamics to accurately deliver space weather warnings in advance.
It offers the potential for substantially longer forecast lead times, which is critical for safeguarding satellites, communications infrastructure and future human space exploration.
Mausumi Dikpati, NSF NCAR senior scientist, who led the research, stated: “The reconstructed subsurface states from PINNBARDS provide initial conditions for forward simulations of solar magnetic evolution, opening the door to predicting where and when large, flare-producing active regions are likely to emerge weeks in advance.”
Supercomputer simulations test accuracy of the tool
The simulations for the research – including code development, testing, and production runs – utilised the Derecho supercomputer at the NSF NCAR-Wyoming Supercomputer Center.
Predicting the Sun’s next flare
The research was funded by NASA’s Heliophysics Guest Investigator Open (HGIO) program and Consequences of Fields and Flows in the Interior and Exterior of the Sun (COFFIES) DRIVE Center, a NASA-funded initiative.
“One of COFFIES aims is to predict where and when the Sun will produce its next big, flare-generating active region,” said Todd Hoeksema, Stanford University professor and the lead of the COFFIES DRIVE Center.
“By combining physics-based modelling with AI, this work lets us peer beneath the Sun’s surface and reconstruct the magnetic conditions that give rise to those regions.”