Case Explained: As ICE arrests reach record highs, percent with criminal record plummets | CU Boulder Today – Legal Perspective

U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement agents arrested more people per day in 2025 than at any time in the past decade, according to new research by University of Colorado Boulder economists. Meanwhile, the percentage of ICE arrests involving people with a criminal record reached a near-historic low.

The analysis of hundreds of thousands of arrests, published as part of the National Bureau of Economic Research working paper series, also shows that ICE tactics changed substantially between the first and second Trump administrations, with more arrests now made in community gathering places like schools and workplaces. Previously, ICE typically detained individuals who were already in law enforcement custody, the authors said.

“There has been a lot of rhetoric and news coverage in the past year about what ICE is doing, but there has been a gap in comprehensive, data-driven evidence,” said author Chloe East, a labor economist and associate professor of economics. “We wanted to know: What is ICE doing that is different? And is the political promise of going after the ‘worst of the worst’ truly bearing out? Our results reveal that the reality of immigration enforcement diverges sharply from the public narrative.”

For the study, East analyzed federal data, obtained through Freedom of Information Act (FOIA) requests, on all ICE arrests from October 2015 to October 2025.

The study found that, early in each of President Donald Trump’s terms in office, his  administration delivered on its promise to increase immigration enforcement. For example, in the first 10 months of Trump’s first term, average daily ICE arrests rose to 435, up 43% from President Barack Obama’s final year in office. In the first 10 months of Trump’s second term, average daily ICE arrests soared to 821, up 170% from President Joe Biden’s final year in office.

But that increased enforcement did not translate to increased arrests of convicted criminals, the study found.

Just 37% of ICE arrests during Trump’s first 10 months in office in 2025 involved individuals with criminal convictions. That’s down from 52% in Biden’s final year in office, 70% in Trump’s first year of his first term, and 79% in Obama’s final year.

“We found that there is an inverse relationship between the number of arrests that ICE makes and ICE’s ability to target people with a criminal conviction, and this pattern has been much more dramatic following Trump’s second inauguration,” said East.

Targeting communities

The study also found stark changes between the first and second Trump administration in the way ICE arrests are being conducted.

During the enforcement surge after Trump’s first inauguration, only 22% of arrests were “community arrests” (made in public places like schools, churches, workplaces and on the street). The rest were “law enforcement arrests,” in which ICE collaborates with local law enforcement to detain someone already in custody. In contrast, in the first 10 months of Trump’s second term, nearly half of ICE arrests were made in the community (up from only 19% in 2024 under the Biden administration).

“We found that ICE is acting at a much larger scale in the second Trump administration than the first, and that as arrests in the community spike, the percentage of those with criminal convictions falls,” said East.

Enforcement activity has not taken place evenly across the country, the study found. In 2025, Democratic strongholds were far more likely to see dramatic spikes in arrests, particularly community arrests.

For instance, in the enforcement area that includes Denver, which has a democratic mayor and governor, ICE arrests increased 211% at the beginning of Trump’s second term, with law enforcement arrests increasing 81% and community arrests increasing 265%.

Other exponential increases in arrests occurred in enforcement areas which include Boston, Atlanta, Washington, D.C, El Paso, and San Diego.

Impact on public safety, economy

Previous studies have consistently shown that immigrants, including undocumented immigrants, are less likely to commit crimes than are people born in the United States.

East fears that by increasingly arresting those with no criminal record, heightened ICE enforcement efforts could backfire and make communities less safe by making law-abiding citizens afraid to interact with law enforcement to report crime.

Such efforts also hurt the economy, her other research has found.

“When you remove thousands of people from the labor market through arrest, detention and deportation, that alone has a harmful effect. But we also find that those who remain work less because they are afraid,” she said. “At the same time, we see no increases in any employment or number of hours worked for U.S.-born workers.”

East hopes that her findings will help policymakers from all parties develop more effective immigration policies.

“Overall, our data provide important new evidence that simply increasing the funding and scale of ICE activity is unlikely to improve public safety.”