Market Update: Business Pessimism About Future of Bulgarian Economy Deepening, Study Shows – Full Analysis

Some 66% of participants in the annual survey of the Bulgarian Chamber of Commerce and Industry (BCCI) expect an economic decline in 2026, while another 13% do not expect any change, according to the survey’s results, published Monday under the title “2025 through the eyes of business”.

The online survey was conducted between November 7 and December 7, 2025, among 847 micro, small, medium and large enterprises from all sectors of the economy and from across the country. For comparison, in the survey “2024 through the eyes of business” 41% of respondents expected an economic decline in 2025, and 21% – maintaining the current level. The survey is being conducted for the 21st consecutive year and aims to assess the state of business in a changing macroeconomic environment.

According to BCCI data, traditionally between 30% and 40% of participants in the annual surveys are optimistic about the development of the economy. The lowest share of optimists was recorded in 2011 (13%) and in 2020 (11%), when pessimistic attitudes reached 71% and 70%, respectively.

After the COVID-19 crisis subsided in 2021, traditional optimism briefly returned, but it was quickly tempered by reality, the chamber reports. This year’s survey again shows a predominance of pessimists (66%).

Pessimism among Bulgarian businesses in 2025 is caused by a combination of external shocks (the international geopolitical situation, the ongoing war in Ukraine, the energy crisis), their after-effects, high inflation and production costs, slowing demand, prolonged political instability and other internal problems such as staff shortages and heavy administration. These factors act simultaneously and intensify the feeling of uncertainty, which causes businesses to limit their expectations and focus on survival instead of growth, in the midst of the process of switching to a new currency from January 1, 2026, the BCCI notes. 

BCCI reports that the survey was conducted during the period of discussion of the State Budget Bill for 2026, for which the Chamber also warned that it includes measures that could create new inflationary pressure and risks to financial stability.

The obstacles 

The biggest obstacles to business are the lack of labour, bureaucracy, regulatory burden, frequently changing regulations, and corruption. The ineffective judicial system is also a serious problem.

For the majority of respondents, the high prices of raw materials, materials and energy resources, as well as the uncontrollable and unjustified growth of incomes, create serious problems, forcing them to increase the final prices of their production and cut costs (mainly investments).

The plans

Expectations of rising prices and, more specifically, the cost of labour, are causing most employers to include wage increases in their plans for 2025. Plans to increase the minimum wage have the greatest impact on inflationary processes – most employers intend to calculate this additional cost into the prices of goods and services.

In response to the economic crisis, about 40-43% of respondents plan to increase their production volume, as well as the range of products/services offered, and every third will seek new markets.

Among the business priorities for 2026 are investments in staff development/training, as well as investments in energy-saving technologies and digitalization of production.

Estimates for 2025

Participants in the BCCI survey give a predominantly negative assessment of both the state of the business climate and the state of their own companies.

A slowdown in global economic growth is already being observed, with a large portion of Bulgarian enterprises expecting their own results to deteriorate due to the weakening of the global economy. The lack of sustainable governance and reforms increases uncertainty and makes long-term planning difficult. Business representatives also note a deficit in partnership between business and state institutions, with little trust in the executive, legislative and judicial branches of government.