Market Update: Treasury CEO Iain Rennie warns NZ is losing too many of its best and brightest, as the country’s top firms aren’t attracting talent – Full Analysis

He noted migrants plugged the gap, but said one couldn’t get away from the fact a large portion of Kiwis were spending some of their most productive years overseas.

New Zealand lost 40,030 more citizens in 2025 than it gained, according to Stats NZ’s latest estimates.

The net loss of Kiwis was similar following the Global Financial Crisis, but not as bad as in 2011-12 after the Canterbury earthquakes and when the Australian economy was booming.

Meanwhile, a net 54,205 non-New Zealand citizens arrived in the country in 2025.

Rennie noted there wasn’t a single solution to the problem of departing Kiwis.

He credited the Government for improving the education system, resource management law, and tax settings, but said a “sustained and predictable path will be needed to build the confidence that helps New Zealand to attract global investment and talent”.

He singled out New Zealand’s top 10% “frontier” firms for not operating in the same realms as other countries’ most productive and innovative firms to attract talent.

“In other OECD countries, the gap between frontier and lagging firms has been widening. But New Zealand’s distribution is relatively flat and stable, indicating our frontier firms are not driving productivity growth,” Rennie said.

“And this connects directly to our capital and innovation challenges.

“Frontier firms typically invest more in capital, adopt new technologies faster, and employ more high-skilled workers. Without strong frontier firms, we struggle to create the demand for skills and capital that would justify higher returns.”

Jenée Tibshraeny is the Herald‘s Wellington business editor, based in the parliamentary press gallery. She specialises in government and Reserve Bank policymaking, economics and banking.