The South African Weather Service (SAWS) has confirmed that Tropical Cyclone Gezani, currently positioned over the Mozambique Channel, poses no direct threat to South Africa at this stage.
In an update issued on Friday, SAWS said the cyclone remains well-defined, with organised convective cloud bands concentrated around its centre.
“Latest satellite imagery shows Tropical Cyclone Gezani situated over the Mozambique Channel. The system remains well-defined, with organised convective cloud bands concentrated around its centre,” SAWS said.
Cloudy and Cool Conditions in South Africa
While Gezani is not expected to directly affect the country, SAWS noted that cloudy and cool conditions are being observed in eastern parts of South Africa, accompanied by isolated to scattered thundershowers.
Cyclone’s Development and Track
Gezani developed over the south-west Indian Ocean, east of Madagascar, and made landfall over Madagascar as a tropical cyclone on Tuesday afternoon.
By Thursday, SAWS reported that the system was moving west-southwest and strengthening under favourable conditions.
Gezani is expected to continue intensifying over the next 36 hours and could reach intense tropical cyclone stage late on Friday evening near the Mozambique coast.
However, the weather service cautioned that the intensity forecast becomes uncertain from Saturday onwards.
Mozambique Landfall Still Uncertain
SAWS said the possibility of a Mozambique landfall cannot be ruled out, although forecast models differ on the exact scenario.
Current guidance suggests a very close approach to the Mozambican coastline, with the potential for a partial and temporary landfall.
Such a scenario could bring significant impacts to coastal Mozambique, including:
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Rainfall of 80–100 mm in less than 24 hours near the coast
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Locally up to 200 mm at the point of closest approach
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Wave heights exceeding 4 metres, with peaks of 7–10 metres between Friday night and Saturday morning
Marine Warning Issued
SAWS has advised vessels operating in or transiting through the south-west Indian Ocean and Mozambique Channel to exercise caution.
Rough seas, strong winds and hazardous marine conditions are expected in the vicinity of the storm, posing risks to offshore marine operations and shipping routes.
Monitoring Continues
While South Africa faces no immediate danger, SAWS said it will continue monitoring Gezani closely, particularly as it approaches Mozambique and regional weather conditions evolve.