Breaking News:Bangladesh New: Jamaat’s incredible jump sees an Islamist pariah take centre stage– What Just Happened

“You guys in India haven’t understood Jamaat,” is what I have been told by members of Bangladesh Jamaat-e-Islami and some political experts in the last many years that I have been writing on Bangladeshi politics and society. I will be honest here. I never anticipated the Jamaat jump that we are all witnessing as Bangladesh votes in its first national election after the fall of PM Sheikh Hasina’s regime.

As a journalist, I cultivated sources across diverse political parties in Bangladesh, including the Jamaat, the Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP) and the now-barred Awami League. India Today Digital had its ear to the ground and was the first to tell you that the Awami League regime was as good as gone on August 4, 2024, a day ahead of Hasina leaving for India. No one else had a whiff. That, amid an internet blackout.

The voting for the 350-seat Jatiyo Sangsad or Bangladesh Parliament will take place on Thursday, and the results will be clear in the wee hours of February 13. Stay updated with our Live Blog on the Bangladesh election.

Let’s return to our story on the Jamaat-e-Islami, which is a cadre-based party and its organisational depth rivals that of the Awami League’s. Despite a ban, which was later lifted by the Muhammad Yunus-led interim set-up, members of the Jamaat and its students’ wing Islami Chhatra Shibir played a key role in the July-August movement that forced Hasina out.

Its leaders, including Ameer Shafiqur Rahman, have been in jail. Several of its leaders, including former ministers, have been hanged for crimes during the 1971 Liberation War.

However, it seems that the Jamaat has emerged from the shadows of the past. “Aamra bhala hoi gisi (we have mended ways). Please give us a chance,” Shafiqur Rahman said at an election rally. Surveys suggest people are willing to give the Jamaat-led 11-party alliance a chance as Bangladesh votes to elect its Jatiyo Sangsad.

That is because the Jamaat and its alliance, which includes the NCP — the outfit formed by July agitation leaders — promise poriborton (change). The Tarique Rahman-led BNP, the frontrunner in the polls, has to battle the taint of corruption, extortion and hooliganism of a section of its members.

“The attraction for notun bondobosto (new way of doing politics) is very strong, especially among the youth. Even if some might not like the NCP-Jamaat combine, they like that they represent fresh politics,” Daniel Rahman, a Dhaka-based political commentator, tells India Today Digital. Daniel, however, is quick to add that “the BNP promises stability with its traditional style of politics”.

Shafquat Rabbee, a Bangladeshi-American political analyst whose inputs I have found to be incisive over the years, too says that the BNP-Jamaat are in a close contest.

“It will be a tight election in terms of the popular vote, but seat-wise, it will still be advantage-BNP with a non-negligible possibility of an upset victory by Jamaat,” says Rabbee.

HOW ONCE-BANNED JAMAAT-E-ISLAMI GAINED BANGLADESH CENTRE STAGE?

The young voters who have just seen Hasina’s rule and do not associate as strongly with the Liberation history might be the differentiator.

“Bangladesh now has around 40 million new voters who see little space for the old style of politics associated with corruption and nepotism. They want change,” Muhammad Nakibur Rahman, Jamaat-e-Islami member and professor of finance at University of North Carolina, tells India Today Digital.

Daniel says the results could be one-sided, but the election will be far from being a one-sided fight. “The discussion earlier was about whether the BNP would get 250 or 280 seats. Now, people are also excited because surveys have predicted a neck-and-neck fight between the BNP and the Jamaat.”

Nakibur, the son of Motiur Rahman Nizami, the former president of Jamaat-e-Islami, explains how the party’s grassroots outreach in post-Hasina Bangladesh is likely to get reflected in the results.

“Over the past 18 months, Jamaat has gone directly to the people, worked alongside communities, and connected especially with young voters. Many citizens now recognise that the long-standing campaign to dehumanise Jamaat was exaggerated and politically motivated,” says Nakibur.

People in Bangladesh have told me that the Jamaat has found favour with minorities, shielding them from attacks as Bangladesh descended into chaos in the days after the fall of the Hasina regime. Jamaat members took turns to guard temples and houses of Hindus.

Daniel reminds me of that while speaking from Dhaka.

“In the last 1.5 year, someone had to give shelter to families of local Awami League leaders as their top leadership disappeared. Otherwise, they couldn’t have survived. In many areas, it was Jamaat members who gave shelter to Hindus. I have heard of several cases where Jamaat leaders gave food and money to Awami League families,” says Daniel.

Jamaat’s best electoral show was in 1991, when it bagged 18 seats with a 12.13% vote share. It got a taste of governance when it shared power with the BNP as its junior partner from 2001 to 2006.

A pre-poll survey by Eminence Associates for Social Development (EASD) predicted that the Jamaat-led alliance was set to win 105 seats, according to a report in The Daily Star on Wednesday. The BNP alliance would win 208 seats, it said.

The EASD survey of 41,500 respondents said Jamaat by itself was set to win 46 seats.

“We focused on listening to people, standing beside them during difficult times, and demonstrating through action, not just words, that we are committed to reform. That is what is creating this momentum,” says Nakibur.

WHAT WOULD A JAMAAT VICTORY MEAN FOR HINDUS IN BANGLADESH?

While a section of BNP members took to extortion and hooliganism right after August 2024, believing that power was theirs, Jamaat members emerged as protectors. However, some experts from Dhaka had warned me earlier, saying Jamaat’s pre- and post-poll faces could be very different.

“A great deal of misinformation has circulated about Jamaat, but many members of the Hindu community know from experience that they were not harmed by the party,” says Nakibur.

He points to the fact that Jamaat has nominated a Hindu candidate, Krishna Nandi from Khulna-1. He says the actions and commitment “will earn the trust of Hindu voters”.

“If Jamaat-e-Islami comes to power, no Hindu will have to leave Bangladesh. No Hindu will be forced to go to India. Instead, Hindus will live in this country with dignity, safety and respect,” wrote Nandi for a foreign news portal.

On Wednesday, Jamaat Ameer Shafiqur Rahman allayed concerns over the safety of Hindus in Bangladesh. The anxiety is understandable as minorities in Bangladesh witnessed a spate of targeted attacks after August 2024.

“Regardless of their religion, they are all Bangladeshi citizens. There are no second-class citizens in my country. We do not endorse divisions based on minority or majority,” Rahman told mediapersons from India.

WHAT WOULD A JAMAAT VICTORY COULD MEAN FOR INDIA?

Like the BNP, the Jamaat has also been accused of a Pakistan tilt. However, Nakibur rejects that, saying, “Jamaat is a pro-Bangladeshi party”.

“In the past 55 years you will not find any statement from Jamaat leadership promoting a pro-Pakistan agenda. Our political focus is Bangladesh and its national interests,” he adds.

Shafiqur Rahman asserted that India would remain a “priority”. “India is our nearest neighbour, and it will remain a priority.”

India, which was seen as traditionally backing the Awami League, has reportedly been reorienting in Dhaka. Foreign Minister S Jaishankar went to Dhaka in December for the funeral of former PM and BNP chief Khaleda Zia. Channels had also been opened with the Jamaat leadership, and four meetings held, according to a BBC report.

“Jamaat is open to engagement with all countries, including India. However, we feel that openness has not always been reciprocated,” says Nakibur.

He speaks about a senior Indian diplomat visiting Shafiqur Rahman in August 2025 after he underwent heart surgery but “requested that the meeting remain private and unreported”.

“We considered that request inappropriate. Other diplomats met him openly without such conditions. The Ameer respectfully conveyed that future meetings should be public; otherwise, they would not be meaningful,” adds Nakibur.

Political observers say that Jamaat-affiliated or inclined people occupy key positions in the current Bangladeshi establishment. This, along with the tailwind, could work in favour of Jamaat-e-Islami and its alliance partners.

Jamaat-e-Islami has come out of the shadows, gaining traction in the run-up to today’s voting in Bangladesh. It is hopeful of its best show ever. How it does in the election will be known by February 13. But the fact is, Jamaat has emerged as a big political factor in Bangladesh, and it will have to be meaningfully engaged with.

– Ends

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