Market Update: We break down the business implications, market impact, and expert insights related to Market Update: Illinois economy drags down business optimism for 2026 – Full Analysis.
As the tariff plans were made clearer, business owners began working to adjust their supply chains, cut costs or raise prices to ensure growth, said Dave Rudolph, region manager for J.P. Morgan Commercial Banking.
“It is pretty remarkable to see the resiliency of the business leaders and the business owners,” Rudolph told Crain’s in an interview. “I think they did what they do best. They sprung into action. They continue to move forward . . . to make strategic decisions to drive and grow their businesses, and that is only accelerating as we move into 2026.”
JPMorgan Chase’s survey showed 67% of Illinois respondents were optimistic about their company’s performance in 2026, 4 percentage points lower than the national total.
Concerns about local issues such as the state budget contributed to the difference, Rudolph said.
JPMorgan’s Business Leaders Outlook Pulse survey released in July showed 53% of Illinois business leaders were optimistic about their own company’s performance, down from 72% at the start of 2025.
The latest poll showed only 33% of Illinois business owners were optimistic about the local economy. That compares with 44% nationally. The trend was reversed for expectations regarding the U.S. economy, with 44% of Illinois respondents optimistic, 5 percentage points higher than the overall response.
With regards to the bottom line, 67% of Illinois respondents expect profits to rise in 2026, down from 70% a year ago. On the revenue front, 75% of Illinois business owners were expecting sales to rise compared with 81% a year ago.
Trump’s tariff plans have remained a major sticking point for companies. Only 26% of Illinois respondents said tariffs have had no impact on the cost of doing business compared to 30% overall.
JPMorgan Chase said 2,471 respondents, including 72 middle market firms in Illinois, across various industries completed the online survey in November. The bank defined the middle market as companies with annual revenue between $20 million and $500 million.