Explained: This article explains the political background, key decisions, and possible outcomes related to Explained : Political unrest casts shadow over elections – DW – 12/24/2025 and Its Impact and why it matters right now.
Bangladesh has plunged into renewed violent unrest in recent days following the killing of Sharif Osman Hadi, a popular student leader and parliamentary hopeful.
The 32-year-old, a staunch critic of neighboring India, was a key figure in the 2024 pro-democracy uprising that ousted former Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina.
Hadi was shot by masked gunmen on December 12 as he was leaving a mosque in Bangladesh’s capital, Dhaka. He died on December 18 while receiving treatment at a hospital in Singapore.
The student leader had planned to contest the general election scheduled for February 12.
Violent protests over the killing
Hadi’s killing set off violent demonstrations in Dhaka. Protesters torched several buildings, including those belonging to two major newspapers deemed to favor India, as well as a prominent cultural institution.
They also hurled stones at the Indian High Commission in the port city of Chattogram. India has since suspended visa services there.
Police said they identified the suspects in Hadi’s killing but have yet to arrest them.
The perpetrator “could be either inside the country or outside,” Bangladeshi Home Affairs Adviser Jahangir Alam Chowdhury said. “If his exact location were known,” Chowdhury said, “he would have been caught.”
UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres condemned Hadi’s killing and urged the authorities to conduct “a prompt, an impartial, a thorough and transparent investigation, in line with international human rights standards.”
Lynching of Hindu man raises safety fears
In a separate incident, Dipu Chandra Das, a 25-year-old Hindu man, was lynched and burned publicly on December 18 following allegations of blasphemy in Mymensingh district’s Bhaluka subdistrict.
The killing deepened fears of insecurity among religious minorities in Muslim-majority Bangladesh since Hasina’s ouster.
Minority groups have accused the interim government, headed by Nobel Peace Prize laureate Muhammad Yunus, of failing to protect their safety. The Yunus administration rejects the accusation.
Authorities said at least 12 suspects had been arrested following the killing of Das.
Tensions between Bangladesh and India
The death further heightened tensions between Dhaka and New Delhi, where hundreds of people protested near Bangladesh’s High Commission. Bangladesh has since halted visa services in New Delhi, Siliguri and Agartala citing security concerns.
Under Hasina, Bangladesh shared warm ties with India.
New Delhi viewed her as a friend, and the countries intensified bilateral economic and security cooperation.
Hasina’s opponents accused her administration of being subservient to India.
Since her downfall, ties between the countries have deteriorated.
Hasina, who sought refuge in India, was sentenced to death in absentia for her government’s clampdown on the 2024 student uprising. She has denied the charges against her.
India has not acted on repeated requests by Bangladesh’s government for her extradition.
New Delhi’s backing of Hasina and helping her stay in power for years has bred anti-India discontent among Bangladeshis, said Mohiuddin Ahmed, a Dhaka-based political historian. “It also helped her party to manipulate elections in the past,” he said.
Top leader to return from exile
Against the backdrop of political unrest and heightened regional tensions, Tarique Rahman, one of Bangladesh’s top politicians, is set to return home on Thursday, after spending 17 years in exile in the United Kingdom.
He is the heir to the nation’s longtime ruling family and a leader of the Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP), which is widely seen as the front runner in the 2026 elections.
Rahman, who says he fled political persecution, has lived in London since 2008. He was implicated in a 2004 grenade attack on a Hasina rally. He denied the charges but was sentenced in absentia to life in prison.
Since Hasina’s ouster, Rahman has been acquitted.
Rahman is widely expected to take over the party leadership from his ailing mother, 80-year-old ex-Prime Minister Khaleda Zia.
Zahed Ur Rahman, a Dhaka-based political analyst, views Rahman’s return favorably.
“Many things will happen due to his return. The administration will start functioning properly. The perception of the election will gain momentum. And his party will regain confidence,” he told DW.
“I think if the BNP acts properly at the grassroots level, the voting will be a good one,” he added.
Ahmed shared a similar view, saying Rahman’s return would reinvigorate the BNP, which has been without an active and visible leader for years because of ex-PM Zia’s imprisonment and illness.
Will the election be free and fair?
A December poll by the US-based International Republican Institute indicated that the BNP could win a majority of the seats in February.
About 33% of the survey participants said they would vote for the BNP. Jamaat-e-Islami, the country’s largest Islamist party, followed, with about 29%.
Roughly 6% said they would vote for the newly established National Citizen Party, which was formed by students who spearheaded last year’s uprising.
Hasina’s Awami League party, which has been barred from the election, has threatened to take to the streets in protest. It has cast doubts about the interim administration’s ability to hold a free and fair vote.
Ahmed believes that there will be a credible election in February.
“The political parties in our country tend to engage in unruly activities during elections. It’s nothing new. However, if the government wants, it will be able to contain them to ensure a peaceful election,” he said.
Edited by: Srinivas Mazumdaru